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Constitutional amendments package: Two-thirds majority for govt unlikely

ISLAMABAD: Growing dissent in the ruling PML on re-electing President Gen Pervez Musharraf in uniform and likely defections to the PML-Nawaz in case of Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan have brought the government to a numerically weak position, and even if PPP Chairwoman Benazir Bhutto finally comes to terms with President Musharraf, the government may not manage a two-thirds majority in parliament to pass a package of constitutional amendments.

In the presence of diehards in both camps – the ruling coalition and the PPP – opposing concessions to each other in the wake of the ongoing negotiations and keeping in view their numerical strength in the National Assembly, an agreed constitutional package, even in case of a deal, would be difficult for the two leaders.

Several PML MNAs are opposed to Ms Bhutto’s third stint as prime minister and are not ready to support any constitutional package in case of a deal. On the other hand, there is also strong dissent in the PPP against Gen Musharraf’s re-election from the current assemblies.

The announced return of PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif ahead of the presidential election on September 10, if it materialises, would further complicate the situation with ‘expected’ defections from the ruling PML. Daily Times has learnt that a ‘soul-searching’ session of NA officials was held at the NA secretary’s office to work out numerical calculations for the two-thirds majority, but it ended on a negative note after analysing the current situation and in the wake of reports of treasury MNAs opposing the ‘deal’ in their private meetings.

The ruling coalition has 200 members including 132 of the PML. However, it has already lost seven MNAs, reducing the coalition’s strength to 193. The seven MNAs include Umer Ahmad Ghuman, Ali Hassan Gilani, Gyan Chand Singh, Ishaq Khakwani, Chaudhry Aijaz Ahmed, Akhtar Kanju and former state minister Shahid Jamil Qureshi. Some of them have parted ways with the PML, while some are unlikely to turn up for voting.

Several other MNAs have also expressed reservations on supporting amendments to benefit Ms Bhutto. These MNAs are divided in two groups. PML President Chaudhry Shujaat reportedly supports one group covertly, while the other group sympathises with Sharif and is reportedly preparing to contest the next elections from the PML-N platform. The PPP’s total strength in the form of the PPP-Parliamentarians is 56. A minimum 228 votes are required for the two-thirds majority. Though the total available strength of the two camps (193 and 56) amounting to 259 apparently looks quite safe, internal bickering in both camps has increased the leaders’ worries.

There are reports that Maulana Fazlur Rehman is also being tempted into supporting the constitutional package. But the MMA’s position is no different from that of the PPP and the PML, as its major partner, the Jamaat-e-Islami, will part ways with its second major partner, the JUI-F, if Maulana Fazl takes the government’s bait. Political pundits believe that in the given circumstances President Musharraf is left with only three options – dissolve the assemblies and announce fresh elections, impose emergency or go for martial law. staff report

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